By Lev Mavashev
Founder & Principal, Alpha Realty
For the last two years, the New York City multifamily market has been waiting for clarity. Clarity on interest rates. Clarity on pricing. Clarity on regulations. Clarity on whether buyers and sellers could finally meet again after one of the most disruptive cycles this market has seen in years.
Well, Q1 2026 gave us a strong answer: the recovery is no longer theoretical. It is showing up in real transaction activity.
According to Alpha Realty’s Q1 2026 Multifamily Market Report, New York City recorded 275 multifamily transactions totaling approximately $1.75 billion in gross transaction volume. That represents a 19.6% increase in deal count year-over-year and a 16.3% increase in total dollar volume compared to Q1 2025. Average deal size also rose to $6.8 million, up nearly 5% year-over-year.
Yes, transaction volume dipped slightly from Q4 2025, down 3.8%, but I don’t see that as a negative signal. Q4 is typically a heavy closing quarter, with sellers and buyers pushing deals over the finish line before year-end. What matters more is the year-over-year trend — and that trend is clearly positive.
This market is not exploding. It is not irrational. But it is gaining footing, and that is exactly what healthy recoveries look like.
The biggest story of the quarter was the return of larger assets. Buildings with 20 or more units accounted for $1.06 billion in total dollar volume, representing roughly 61% of all citywide multifamily dollar volume. Deal count in this segment jumped 63.6% year-over-year, which tells me institutional and larger private capital is no longer just circling the market — they are starting to transact.
This is happening for a reason. New supply remains constrained. The expiration of 421-a, the slow adoption of 485-x, high construction costs, and years of development uncertainty have created a scarcity premium around existing multifamily inventory. Investors understand that if you want scale in New York City today, you cannot wait for new product to magically appear. You have to compete for what already exists.
At the same time, smaller free-market properties continue to attract strong private investor demand, especially those under 10 units. That segment saw 148 transactions citywide, up 12.1% year-over-year, with dollar volume increasing 22.2%. In a market where Good Cause Eviction has added another layer of regulation, many investors are gravitating toward smaller buildings that offer more operational flexibility.
Manhattan was clearly the standout performer in Q1.
The borough posted 102 transactions, an 88.9% year-over-year increase, and total dollar volume reached $1.03 billion, up 41.6% from Q1 2025. That is a very meaningful number. Manhattan also saw total units sold more than double year-over-year, reaching 2,527 units.
What does that tell us? Capital is coming back to Manhattan in a serious way. The large-scale segment drove much of the activity, with 20+ unit transactions up 184.2% year-over-year and dollar volume in that segment reaching $668.3 million. Investors are once again willing to pay for location, liquidity, and long-term rent growth. Manhattan may have gone through a pricing reset, but it never lost its place as the center of gravity for global real estate capital.
Brooklyn, meanwhile, continues to be the city’s workhorse.
It remained the most active borough by deal count, with 105 transactions in Q1 2026. Dollar volume came in at $502.4 million, slightly below last year, but the average transaction size held steady at approximately $5.1 million. That stability matters. Brooklyn is not showing signs of distress. It is showing signs of pricing equilibrium.
The most interesting part of Brooklyn’s market is that smaller buildings continue to dominate deal flow. Properties with fewer than 10 units accounted for 83 of the borough’s 105 transactions. That tells us private capital remains very active, especially in neighborhoods where investors can still find manageable deal sizes, strong tenant demand, and long-term appreciation potential.
Queens posted a steady quarter, with 45 transactions, up 4.7% year-over-year. Total dollar volume was $153.2 million, essentially flat compared to Q1 2025. The borough pulled back from Q4’s elevated activity, but that was expected after several larger closings drove the prior quarter higher.
Queens continues to be a mid-market story. Astoria, Ridgewood, Long Island City, Forest Hills, and other transit-oriented neighborhoods remain attractive because they provide relative affordability, strong rental demand, and access to Manhattan without Manhattan pricing. The small-asset segment continues to anchor the borough, with buildings under 10 units accounting for 33 transactions and dollar volume in that category rising more than 15% year-over-year.
The Bronx had a more difficult quarter on paper, but I would not overread it.
The borough recorded 23 transactions and $55.6 million in dollar volume, down sharply from Q4 2025 and also below Q1 2025. But the Bronx tends to be more cyclical, especially when a prior quarter is driven by a few larger institutional trades. The long-term story remains intact, especially in the East Bronx, where the Metro-North Penn Station Access project could create meaningful value over the next several years.
For now, Bronx investors are still underwriting carefully. Rent-stabilized assets remain challenging, and buyers are demanding real basis discounts. But for patient capital, the Bronx continues to offer one of the better long-term value-add plays in the city.
The bigger picture is this: New York City multifamily is moving from uncertainty to execution.
Interest rates may not be back to the ultra-low levels of the past, but investors have adjusted. Sellers are becoming more realistic. Buyers have more confidence in their underwriting. Lenders are selectively back in the market. And most importantly, the fundamentals are still there: strong rental demand, limited new supply, and long-term confidence in New York City as one of the most durable multifamily markets in the world.
This is not the 2021 market. It is not cheap debt and easy money driving activity. This is a more disciplined market, driven by real fundamentals, better pricing alignment, and a growing recognition that the window to buy before pricing firms further may be narrowing.
For sellers, this is the time to understand where demand is strongest and position assets accordingly. For buyers, this is the time to move with conviction before competition increases. And for everyone sitting on the sidelines waiting for perfect clarity — that moment rarely comes in New York real estate.
The market has already started moving.
The question now is whether you move with it.
Lev Mavashev
Founder & Principal, Alpha Realty
